What reason was there for assuming any probability of an uprising in the city?
They claim probability - moral certainty - mathematical certainty.
Probability is an entirely different issue.
Christian Evidences - the strong probability of the resurrection of Christ and the consequent authority of his teaching.
The second part of the Laws of Thought contained a corresponding attempt to discover a general method in probabilities, which should enable us from the given probabilities of any system of events to determine the consequent probability of any other event logically connected with the given events.