A third way to predict the future that I believe is reliable rejects both the slavish following of the straight line and the purely speculative approach.
Anything but slavish adoration from the population results in retribution.
How I snuffed that Tartar air!--how I spurned that turnpike earth!--that common highway all over dented with the marks of slavish heels and hoofs; and turned me to admire the magnanimity of the sea which will permit no records.
Glimpses do ye seem to see of that mortally intolerable truth; that all deep, earnest thinking is but the intrepid effort of the soul to keep the open independence of her sea; while the wildest winds of heaven and earth conspire to cast her on the treacherous, slavish shore?
In my experience, a slavish adherence to a methodology can be a good substitute for thought, for some bad PM 's.